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Discussion Forums: I-485
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Topic: June 08 Visa Bulletin for Indians
Posted by birbal (111) 23 Apr 2008
Here is an analysis I have done. The dates will move forward according to me and it will definitely not go back. Look at the trend for the past three years. Last quarter of July-Sep has been always good for India except for EB2 in 2006 and EB3 in 2005.


Month / EB2 – India / EB3 – India

Jun 2005 C Jun 1, 2002
Jul 2005 C U
Aug 2005 C U
Sep 2005 C U

Oct 2005 Nov 1, 1999 Jan 1, 1998
Nov 2005 Nov 1, 1999 Jan 1, 1998
Dec 2005 Jul 1, 2000 Jan 1, 1999
Jan 2006 Jan 01 Jun 99
Feb 2006 Aug 01 Jan 00
Mar 2006 Jan 02 Jan 01
Apr 2006 Jul 02 Feb 01
May 2006 Jan 03 Mar 01

Jun 2006 Jan 03 Apr 01
Jul 2006 Jan 03 Apr 01
Aug 2006 U Apr 01
Sep 2006 U Apr 01

Oct 2006 Jun 02 Apr 01
Nov 2006 Jan 03 Apr 01
Dec 2006 Jan 8, 2003 Apr 22, 2001
Jan 2007 Jan 8, 2003 May 8, 2001
Feb 2007 Jan 8, 2003 May 8, 2001
Mar 2007 Jan 8, 2003 May 8, 2001
Apr 2007 Jan 8, 2003 May 8, 2001
May 2007 Jan 8, 2003 May 8, 2001

Jun 2007 Apr 1, 2004 Jun 1, 2003
Jul 2007 C C
Aug 2007 U U
Sep 2007 Apr 1, 2004 U

Oct 2007 Apr 1, 2004 Apr 22, 2001
Nov 2007 Apr 1, 2004 Apr 22, 2001
Dec 2007 Jan 1, 2002 May 1, 2001
Jan 2008 Jan 1, 2000 May 1, 2001
Feb 2008 U May 8, 2001
Mar 2008 U Aug 1, 2001
Apr 2008 Dec 1, 2003 Oct 1, 2001
May 2008 Jan 1, 2004 Nov 1, 2001
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Posted by InspectorFox (117) 23 Apr 2008
Great analysis... Appreciate your efforts :)
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Posted by Jhaalaa (582) 23 Apr 2008
1. Someone suggested me to use http://spreadsheets.google.com to provide links and it is indeed good. Example http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pezNTiCXNupwoSrZGE4kqcg

2. Did you fear public bashing that you didn't provide your JUNE2008 forecast numbers - I could see only the USCIS figures and not yours' ;-) Just joking, its good you posted the summary - I have it at my desk and was about to post it when I saw your message.

A little movement may happen, but I would be surprised if EB3 India became Jan2003. The reason is the amount of backlogs that exist for EB3 India. Also please don't forget that the ROW would not have any overflows as it happened a few times in the past.

May be in June2009 visa bulletin, some legislative changes may help us see Jan2003 or even June2003.

Best Wishes
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Posted by vdhananjay (369) 05 May 2008
Thanks Birbal for the awesome analysis and positive result


Dhananjay
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Posted by gettinggc (955) 05 May 2008
Birbal,

Please check the VB details again. You have mixed up the famil based GC VB with employment based..

S..
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Posted by birbal (111) 05 May 2008
checked it....the data is accurate.
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Posted by gettinggc (955) 06 May 2008
I am sorry, i overlooked.

The fiscal year is divided into 4 quarters. OCT-NOV-DEC; JAN-FEB-MAR; APR-MAY-JUN; JUL-AUG-SEP.

For APR it moved to Dec 2003 and MAY it moved to Jan 2004. We have seen some approvals for EB2 India in past 2 months. Also EB1 is current so it might try to use all the allotted visas as much as possible so it might continue to be C. If EB2 India has not used all the allotted numbers so far, then it might stay as it is or move little bit forward may be one or 2 months. As we are in the last month of the quarter, we can't expect a big move in the VB date.

The real expectation should be for the last quarter i.e) JUL-AUG-SEP in which every category will try to use all the remaining visa. And this time, i believe, because of the noise, the USCIS might want to use all the allotted visa for this fisacal year, so we could expect a big movement in the VB for the last quarter.Just my thoughts.

S..
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Posted by vdhananjay (369) 06 May 2008
I agree with s analysis as well... I am waiting for EB2 India dates to be just moving ahead for 2 weeks ... :) although I do hope that it move way further ..
My question is when can we expect the visa bulletin to be issued ...Any guesses for my Comfort?
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