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I am from Finland |
| I last logged in on 22 Mar 2012 |
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I have been a member since 04 Sep 2008
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| I have added
203 posts in trackitt forums
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I added my last post on 16 Mar 2012
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| NayaGabru's Posts
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Topic: Dates may retrogress for India and China for EB2 - August 2007
also anyone who can come up with better tips/tricks, please feel free to write. | |  |  |
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Topic: Dates may retrogress for India and China for EB2 - August 2007
That may be a reasonable response. But it really does not depend on the last PD they approved, but rather than PD of the first person they can approve.
Understand it like this - say they have 10 till 01 Aug 06, 20 - 01 Aug 07, 30000 - 01 Aug 08, 50000 - 01 Aug 09, now if the capacity has finished, then where will they take the cut off date to.
Quite obviously to 01 Aug 06, and they would henceforth consider the demand to be just 10. Now when they get more visa numbers - say in fourth quarter or next year 01 Oct 2012, then again they would start counting till they again run out of numbers. I think this may be a reasonable way. So the bottom line is to make sure you get your application in on the first day the date become current, secondly if it has been 30 days for biometric/EAD and AP - raise a SR, there may be a good chance that you can beat retrogression to go on the other side if some one approves your case before they completely stop looking at your category. Also if you get notice for biometric, do try early walk-ins. Last but maybe best option would be to engage Mr Gotcher to go for CP immediately. | | | |
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Topic: Wake up NSC
Yes, please tell them about other applications. As you can see most of the people who get their notices are using good attorneys. Please follow up with the established time lines i.e. 30 days for biometrics, 45 days for EAD and 120 days for GC. | | | |
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Topic: Wake up NSC
always remember u don't get extra points for waiting or ur hesitation. even if an atorney handles your case, if you know the receipt number and there is a delay of 30 days please raise a SR. u will not lose anything. no one is keeping track of, as to why u are raising sr.
and SR is time bound by 15 days. if you do not get any response, talk to uscis again. USCIS agents very courteously tell that please give a call again if the issue is not resolved. it is in everyone's interest to get the process moving forward as quickly as possible. there is absolutely nothing wrong except the hesitation/ | | | |
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Topic: Wake up NSC
once u raise SR - make sure to tell the person that you have other related petitions also, including the receipt number and alien #.
The fact is that no one cares for your petition. As far as anyone is concerned it can stay there for 10 years. It hardly makes any kind of difference to any one's health.... If an applicant does not raise a request, you do not expect a someone to be concerned about you. In any case they already have system in place to address the delay like AC21/SR, etc. Only a fool would not take advantage of the system in place. | | | |
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Topic: Wake up NSC
please submit a SR if it has been 30 days since RD (not ND!). The reason is that even USCIS wants people to raise request and be cognizant of time lines. They can not meet service goals if the applicant file gets stuck some where - there is no system for reminders if a case gets extended beyond 30 days.
Also people who raise SR start getting priority.. One more reason was that if people do not raise SR people think there is something wrong.
you would help uscis if you let them take out your file. | | | |
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Topic: Demand Data for April released
Well the reason is that DD shows they just got 35 number as CUMULATIVE demand till 01 Jan 2012. that too 25 is from earlier years - which for some reason they are carrying over and over to next year.
In first paragraph they said they got 40,000 available for the entire year. They did not say how much they used. Say they used quarter for the quarter, then they got 30000 still available. processing time is 4 months. So people who filed in Jan will complete their 4 months in April.
In fact if this is their data to go by, even Feb filers will get out of the queue by May and so on so forth.
Would you buy this possibility that now if some one says that suddenly in Feb DD, they would be able to generate additional 29,965 people to file 485 ? I for one would not.
I would say that even if EB2IC were to become current, then also they would not be able to finish their capacity of EB1/4/5/ and 2, this year and it would spill to EB3. | | | |
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Topic: Demand Data for April released
I am not a frequent trackitter. But I follow most developments to understand the process. This is one thing i.e. the so called DD which has always intrigued me. And the more I look at it to try and understand and may be get some rational, logical deduction or even a sense of how things progress, the more absurd it becomes. I am yet to find any value in it.
People have all sort of arguments. Majority try to fit data to the theory. As usual it doesn't work. That process leaks and stinks.
Most data is redundant and of historical trash value as soon as it is put together. Let's keep our fingers crossed and knuckles cracked.
I completely agree with your points. | | | |
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Topic: Demand Data for April released
Also, we can be 100 % sure that if this is their demand data, there would not be any retrogression for EB2IC. EB3IC also can not retrogress.
Infact EB2IC movement depends entirely on the risk appetite (even that is also not completely rational and data driven).
So people who filed in Jan will definitely get their green within April. | | | |
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Topic: Demand Data for April released
Well this is all that we can do... | | | |
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Topic: Demand Data for April released
Mr. Gabru,
There are lot of flaws and assumptions in you logic.
Most of the stuff written by "vnarang23" is correct. Unfortunately I'm unable to spend enough time to explain everything at this time (being work hours).
DD always shows the i-485s approved by USCIS and sent to DOS for visa number allocation. For example DOS received 2000 I-485 approved files from USCIS yesterday and managed to allocate visas to 1950 yesterday by EOD, then we will see 50 as the demand in DD report.
I know that you are itching for argument.
I am also.
We share the same problem - 'work'.
Suffice to say - the extrapolated interpretation given by you for having sent some thing to some one and they responded back with some other numbers does not hold water for the simple reason that if this was the process they were following then they are running pretty short.
They say they have demand for only 20 EB2IC and 25 for EB2ROW. But they had 40000 to do. Let's say 40000 over 12 months is 3333 each month. that is they have month to month capacity to absorb 3333-45= 3288 more.
That is capacity for month is more than the demand. That means - all should be current.
If the demand still does not fulfill capacity, then it should overflow to the next bucket.
Also your logic "DD always shows the i-485s approved by USCIS and sent to DOS for visa number allocation." implies that USCIS does not have enough petitions to approve and send to DOS to fill that capacity. That means DOS has to advance the dates to current, so that USCIS gets enough petitions.
Now whose problem is that and who will resolve it or rather who is interested in resolving it. I don't know.
I am sure there are enough smart people to realize that this DD raises more questions than we can answer thru extrapolated logic/argument. I don't think I will understand it ever. Good Luck to anyone who is still trying to find answers to life's most persistent questions. Au revoir. | | | |
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Topic: Demand Data for April released
This argument can only make sense - that other countries will not be able to file 485 because of over abundance of demand from IC, if it actually happens in one single case from 1 million cases and from 172 other countries.
IC can be current and retrogressed if other birth countries ever suffer.
The very fact that it has never happened - defeats this argument. It is almost arguing for an action based on a premise which holds a particular view of the future which in turn is not supported by enough evidence of the probability of it happening based upon the past events, expected present events and the prescient nature of the future.
Make sense of the above statement. :).
Then you would understand that it is all bumkum. There is only one God - Mr CO.
Hail to him for he shall bless us ... And stop wasting threads on demand data.
I should get back to work now. | | | |
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Topic: Demand Data for April released
What I think is that the rule of making a category current only applies if a particular country is not able to use its alloted quota of 2800. If india has already consumed the 2800 for this fiscal year, and it just getting additional spots due to spillover, then that would not make it current, just for the fact that they used up their entire 2800.
If you think deeply, this logic would make sense, cos otherwise if they make india current based on the spillover, then any other person from another country won't be able to file 485 as the numbers might have been taken up by India. In that case, it will create a backlog for other countries.
Hope it clears your doubt.
I write it in an inquiring spirit.
Firstly - your data is incorrect. 40000 is for one year. limited to 7 % for each oversubscribed country. So that makes it 2800 for year, then come the caveats and the provisios. any thing which other birth countries do not consume are the leftovers.
Now this leftover has been going on since last 5 years ATLEAST. which means that IC are eating up the entire quota of 40000 since last 5 years - So it does not make sense to keep IC back by 3 years so that other countries are able to file. They have always been current - haven't they. This argument that other countries may not be able to file 485 if IC are current does not hold any water in light of the fact that they have always been CURRENT. At no point in recorded history of the human kind, ever since we learnt to file 485s, did any citizens of IC get any priority in the queue. We always ate leftovers and then we begged for more of the same :)
Then there is another rider - that is 30 % of total capacity to be consumed each quarter. Now is your turn to think deeply. :)
If you think deeply, this logic would make sense, cos otherwise no other birth countries ever retrogressed, (since the birth of mankind). | | | |
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Topic: Demand Data for April released
I have a question on DD , why 2010 column doesn't show any data and moreover 2009 shows data only for column jan and that too very less like 29
I don't know. This is a mystery. I am sure I would become PR before I or any one else would be able to solve/resolve it. We can waste lot of bits and bytes on making sense of this data, but the bottom line is that our God is Mr CO. Let's collectively pray to him, instead of wasting time/ our limited intellectual capital.
But again I wonder - for whom is this data intended.
Hell, I am doing it again, trying to make sense of the world's greatest mystery :) | | | |
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Topic: Demand Data for April released
Well as Feynman said, " anyone who claims to understand quantum mechanics is bluffing". And anyone who understands this data or claims to - is also cutting our charlie.
I am really unable to buy these arguments of CP/at what stage/ etc. If there was really any such explanation, they would have listed it. Or atleast provided some indication, etc.
This is my personal opinion.
It is all bluff and buster for one. Second it is truthful, in the sense that there really are not that many applicants in their system as their capacity each month. So they are letting the visa numbers go - what they call as waste ? State department is pushing them by advancing the cut off dates - but they are not showing up in the system of the person counting the beans - atleast not till now. If their own formula is applied, then EB2IC should be current tomorrow. And also EB3(all but IC). Atleast this is what the data says as they have put it on the internet. | | | |
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Topic: Demand Data for April released
Well, it does not say that anywhere. I have a feeling that this is your own interpretation/ maybe you got it from some other guru also.
But let's for a moment say that is true. Then it goes on to directly and most explicitly say that this is the demand data used for visa cut off determination. Also in the first paragraph - they list that they have 2800 number capacity to approve each month.
Then they provide a worked out example of their formula. Say if the demand is 1000 and we got 3000 so we say the category is current. Well it does not make sense as to why that formula does not get applied to all the categories where it is less than the capacity. Also why are they listing out 2008/2009 numbers. Don't the petition expire after 6 months of inactivity on behalf of petitioner ? My sneaking suspicion is -- well let's leave that for later. | | | |
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Topic: Demand Data for April released
What does this actually mean. At what stage of processing do they include the applicant in the demand data.
Considering what they are saying EB2 should be current for all, and EB3 should also be current except may be for china/india.
I don't understand it at all. I don't know if any one else also does ?
And if no one understands it - then it is for whose consumption - Can some one with years of experience please shed some light on it.
Maybe they forgot to right 1000's after EB2 - and how is it that it is round figures ? 10/10/20/35/? | | | |
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Topic: Offer from New company before i-485 filing
First, PD is yours forever - not just for 6 months, even if you change the preference category i.e. from EB3 to EB2 or EB2 to EB1.
The only thing you have to convince company A is that they should not cancel 140 - as it is - it is an unnecessary expenditure for them - but some people do it out of vindictiveness.
But if 140 is approved, then there is no longer any issue for losing PD. Even next PERM/140/485 goes faster if once you have already crossed the first two hurdle. | | | |
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Topic: Offer from New company before i-485 filing
No.. You never lose the PD if the 140 is approved. Yes the old process is abandoned if employer withdraws the 140 before 485 is filed and 6 months are not over.
PD can be retained for the next filing. | | | |
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Topic: Offer from New company before i-485 filing
No you can not file 485 while with B if A does not cooperate. You get an employment offer/verification letter from A on their letter head (drafts are available on google).
If A cancels 140 - then u would need to start from scratch. Depends on your preference category also.
This must be amongst the "most asked" question on these kind of forums , "when can I dump the present employer".
Good luck to you. Maybe USCIS needs to put it on the FAQs.
Even now on 485 receipt, of all the things they tell you the procedure of how to go about dumping the present employer. | | | |
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