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Member Profile: maverick23 (167 posts)

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Hello, I'm maverick23 (report this user)
I am from India
I last logged in on 16 Feb 2018
I have been a member since 20 Sep 2008
I have added 167 posts in trackitt forums
I added my last post on 12 Feb 2018
maverick23's Immigration Cases
 
PERM case: Approved in 139 days (95 days less than average)   (0 comments)
User: maverick23 Nationality: India
Priority Date:04 Jan 2010Category:EB2
Audit Received?:noAudit Received Date:
Reason for Audit:Audit Replied Date:12 Aug 2008
Application Status:approvedApproval/Denial Date:23 May 2010
Total Processing Time:139 daysDays Elapsed:
Case Added to Tracker: Last Updated: 22 Oct 2013
Notes:
maverick23's Posts
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Posted in I-485 Forum on 12 Feb 2018
Topic: April 2018 VB Prediction

Correction: I meant the only category which is at a LOSS for not filing dates not being used is EB3/India. I am sure you'all got it!
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Posted in I-485 Forum on 12 Feb 2018
Topic: April 2018 VB Prediction

I will not make any prediction for Filing Date acceptance as it has defied all ODDs for EB category since 10/2017. Based on Final Action date chart the only category that is a LOSER for not accepting filing date is EB3-ROW. It is now apparent that USCIS is doing this by design to absorb some the spillover from EB3 category to offset EB1 demand.

I was looking at Priority dates since Oct 2011 (FY 2012) for EB3-I. Here are the results.Fascinating!

Oct 2011 started with PD in 7/15/2002 and it took 20 months to clear the remainder of 2002.
2003 took 21 months to clear.
2004 took 18 months to clear.
2005 took 10 months to clear.
2006 took 8 months to clear

2007 ??

My prediction - 2007 will clear in 6 months with Sep 2018 date at 1/1/2008. However, that would again mean that EB3-I would have not got its full share of immigrant visas. Just one word. Sad!
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Posted in I-485 Forum on 31 Jan 2018
Topic: March 2018 VB Prediction

Yes, i did see that data point. 11,500 visas consumed by EB1 India and China is indeed high. However, the supply for that consumption came from two categories-

1. FY 2017 quota - 2400 EB3 visas that were absorbed by EB1 (mostly India)
2. FY 2018 quota - EB1 applicants with priority dates prior to March 1, 2017 (485 interview requirement)

Once, EB1 inventory is past the 03/01/2017 date they are going to be subjected (i assume) to the same interview scheduling process applicable to EB2 and EB3. So, even if the consumption high , if USCIS has procedural delays to schedule interviews - the benefit can be realized by EB2 INDIA.
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Posted in I-485 Forum on 30 Jan 2018
Topic: March 2018 VB Prediction

EB3 I FAD should clear aug 2007 in the third quarter of FY 2018. beyond that is anybody's guess and CO's will :-)
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Posted in I-485 Forum on 30 Jan 2018
Topic: March 2018 VB Prediction

Guys...take a breather here.

The CO is from the state department and I think he is definitely "risk averse" but not a devious in his strategy of holding back Eb3 I from filing their 485 based on filing date.

You are failing to realize that the state department has been issuing bulletin after bulletin from october 2017 with eb3 i filing date as 01-01-2008. Guess who is not honoring it - USCIS...and have you thought why? nothing against EB3 I.

Taken directly from USCIS site "If USCIS determines that there are more immigrant visas available for a fiscal year than there are known applicants for such visas, we will state on this page that you may use the Dates for Filing Visa Applications chart. Otherwise, we will indicate on this page that you must use the Application Final Action Dates chart to determine when you may file your adjustment of status application."

pay attention to the statement if there are more immigrant visas available in the fiscal year than known applicants... filing date will be accepted.

so for each eb category currently the demand is more than the supply, therefore final action date is being considered.

CO favors EB1 that is why conveniently the final action date is current, so applicants are assured of ead.

in fact, the last couple of check ins , he has been openly expressing his inability to guage demand after august. i think it more of a cue to uscis but they are hell bent on not accepting filing date to open the window for applicants - my guess, the cause is the litigation filed in 2015.

again these are my view points...

now for the rumor about eb2 i movement. this rumors surfaced after the co expressed that there may be volatility in final action dates due to uscis interview requirements. this one lawyer, whos links are being shared on trackitt has taken it a little too far.

eb2 i has an inventory of 12k in 2009 (no including porters from eb3 who are waiting to file if the dates move into 2009). what is being assumed is that the interview delays, combined with lower perms filings will open a window of opportunity for eb2 i applicants who have already filed aos (since they are not subject to interviews). however for the dates to go past 2009 there has to be at least 10k+ spillover (coming from eb1 or eb2). dont forget even eb1 india applicants after march 2017 are subject to interviews. so while they will get eads, they have to wait for interviews.

currently, the co has no knowledge if the interviews will cause this delay and hence his comment.

my guess for eb2 i - this year they will go past feb 2009 due to the factors stated above. however, the maximum expected movement would be may 2009 (Again an educated guess from my end)
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Posted in I-485 Forum on 29 Jan 2018
Topic: March 2018 VB Prediction

All good points...Once the priority date for EB3-I enters 2007, we should see healthy movement of the final action date. My educated guess would be the CO clearing pending inventory for EB3-I by before June 2017 (May bulletin). Starting with the June bulletin, CO is driving blind at the wheel...and guess who put the blindfolds on - USCIS. hahaha! How far will the FAD for EB3-I go past July 2007 depends on two factors -

1. Availability of immigrant visas in the last quarter (factors that will contribute to a higher number would be - impact of 485 interviews, demand of EB3-ROW, RFERs processed by CIS for pending cases. However, a factor against would be the internal recallocation/absorption of EB3 visas to meet the demand in EB1-I)
2. CO's appetite for risk
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Posted in I-485 Forum on 29 Jan 2018
Topic: March 2018 VB Prediction

EB3-I in March bulletin is expected to escape 2006 ! Whether we see a 1 month movement to 1-Jan-07 or 3 month movement to 1-Mar-07.

That would mean it took 9 months to move past 2006 (jul 07 bulletin was the first time the FAD for this category was in 2006).

2007 will be entire different story ! Fly EB3-I fly! It is your time for retribution..
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Posted in I-485 Forum on 19 Jan 2018
Topic: March 2018 VB Prediction

Seeing the allocation of EB Immigrant visas EB1>EB2>EB3 for FY 2017, it is obvious that DOS/USCIS has its "own" ways to implement "Skilled Immigration" in America without changes to the current immigration laws.


Consistently EB3 has been getting approx 37.5K visas FY15,FY16,FY17! Wow.

FY 2018 will be worse! In fact, we may not get close to 140k visas by the end of the fiscal year. New 485 interview requirements coupled with USCIS's reluctance in accepting filing dates will result in much larger wastage of EB immigrant visas.
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Posted in I-485 Forum on 18 Jan 2018
Topic: March 2018 VB Prediction

Based on the last 485 inventory and the feb visa bulletin fad for EB3 India it is beginning to appear that CO has decided to release the annual quota of 2,800 visas early on. This will be confirmed if and when USCIS releases the inventory as of December.

Now that EB3 Row has been current for 7 months, five of which are in this fiscal year, I am hopeful that spillover will begin with Q3 (in line with predictions provided for EB3 India in the upcoming bulletin).

Which means once this category enters 2007, it is going to fly ! However, once dates go past July 2007, there is going to be in flight term “a stall”. Cause - USCIS reluctance in accepting filing dates.

Sad!
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Posted in I-140 Forum on 11 Jan 2018
Topic: GC's for skilled to increase - Bill

Just as I had said a little while earlier (read the last paragraph of the article) -

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/368523-senat...


Sorry folks. The only way legal immigration will be addressed is via CIR. Outside of the v1.0 will only deal with DACA, border security, VISA lottery (immigrant visas diverted to TPS category). Chain migration is hot button issue but extremely contentious. The only possibility will be that DACA legalized recipients will be limited from sponsoring their illegal Amigos (aka parents) who brought them to this big/beautiful country.
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Posted in I-140 Forum on 11 Jan 2018
Topic: Goodlatte bill coming today - Any details ?

Sorry to bust your bubble and euphoria but NOTE that Immigration bills that have any realistic chance of passing will initiate from the Senate. Bills from the House are just distractions to appeal to the overall media, constituents and sponsors.

There will be no Immigration bill that includes a respite for the backlogged Indian community. The reason - there is not enough traction from the community nor is there any backing from industry.

DACA will happen with a border security and that's about it in this version. Adios!
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Posted in I-140 Forum on 11 Jan 2018
Topic: GC's for skilled to increase - Bill

Sorry to bust your bubble and euphoria but NOTE that Immigration bills that have any realistic chance of passing will initiate from the Senate. Bills from the House are just distractions to appeal to the overall media, constituents and sponsors.

There will be no Immigration bill that includes a respite for the backlogged Indian community. The reason - there is not enough traction from the community nor is there any backing from industry.

DACA will happen with a border security and that's about it in this version. Adios!
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Posted in I-485 Forum on 04 Jan 2018
Topic: February 2018 VB Prediction

Happy New Year folks!

My two cents on how dates (final action) for EB3-India are going to fare for the remained on the fiscal year. I using statements from the CO in the last check in in December as a basis.
Feb bulletin - 3rd week of 11/2006 or best case 12/1/2006
Mar bulletin - 2nd week of 12/2006 or best case 1//1/2007

Starting, 3rd quarter of FY 2018 - CO is going to take a hard look at the demand pattern for EB3-ROW (he already mentioned in the check in). If FAD remains current for EB3-ROW in Feb Mar - cautious expectation of moderate spillover starting third quarter.

Finally, the CO also admits that there is no visibility of demand beyond July 2007 and that limits his ability to see where the FAD will end at the end of the fiscal year. In some ways, he is expressing his frustration for USCIS not accepting filing date. USCIS continues to defend it stand by saying that there is enough demand till July 2007 for it accept filing date of 1/1/2008.

So, as I mentioned earlier the loss of EB3-I will be gain for EB1-I and EB2-I.
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Posted in I-485 Forum on 21 Dec 2017
Topic: EB3 I 2006 PDs Please gather here.

Hi, i understand your concern that folks should reply to RFEs ASAP; however, you need to understand that based on the type of request - gathering documentation can take time. Even if you do have all the documentation, our wonderful immigration process involves lawyers that will not work at their own pace. My experience from having worked with different firms in the past 15 years for both my self and my spouse has taught me that the law profession trains you to be slow...it is just inherent to their job.

Finally, I know you are waiting to file your 485 (I am in the same boat with a PD in July 2007); however, please keep your hopes in check for FY 2018. USCIS has not accepted filing dates yet again for January 2018 and I am not hopeful that they may till the last quarter of FY 2018 (which means that there will not be enough time to issue green cards for new AOS filers).

Also, please note spillover determination and issuance is managed by the State Department and not USCIS. USCIS has just shown proactiveness on their part to have issued RFEs till July 2007 to avoid a repeat of Sep 2017 (we know what happened based on the CO check in).

So, unless spillover is not issued soon (feb, mar, apr bulletins) - the progress of final action dates is going to be slow in the increments of 2 to 3 weeks each month. This is the fact, based on math and the availability of annual quota for EB3-India.
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Posted in I-485 Forum on 14 Dec 2017
Topic: Feb-2018 Visa Bulletin prediction

base on the aug inventory which i consider accurate for eb2 india - there are almost 3,000 pending cases in may-june 2009 itself. so run the math - with no spillover an entire fiscal year's quota may be used up clearing two months.

now as i said in my earlier post, if all of the following occur -

1. eb2 row stays current beyond first half of fy2018 (indicator will be q1 2018 perm data, we know q4 2017 was low)
2. aos interviews increase processing time for 485 applications
3. uscis refuses to accept filing date soon (in the event they go past feb or mar 2018 - there will be eb3-row visas that will not be able to be absorbed by eb3-india and vertically allocated to eb1-i and some to eb2-i)

then i see fad for eb2-india going past feb 2009, depending on spillover. if it gets 2k then i see the fad some where in april if 3k then a date in may (best case) by the end of fy 2018.
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Posted in I-485 Forum on 14 Dec 2017
Topic: Feb-2018 Visa Bulletin prediction

i am hopeful that due to eb3-row being current thus far (will be six months taking into account the jan bulletin) the spillover allocation timeline may be earlier this year. best case 3rd quarter april bulletin or may at the latest. i do not foresee the co waiting till july as he did in fy 2017.

the question though is how long will uscis wait to build inventory ?

in case of eb2 india, based on drop in perm applications towards the end of last quarter of fy2017 and based on unconfirmed numbers from q1 2018 there is a possibility of some spillover. the slowdown in adjudicating aos applications due to interviews will also help. however, everything put together - eb2 india will not see fad beyond april 2009 (best of the best case).
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Posted in I-485 Forum on 14 Dec 2017
Topic: Feb-2018 Visa Bulletin prediction

AceMan1 welcome back!

This report is by the State department of pending cases that have selected Consular processing for AOS. PG 9 of the document clearly mentions 83 percent of the EB categories are processed by USCIS.
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Posted in I-485 Forum on 14 Dec 2017
Topic: Feb-2018 Visa Bulletin prediction

My guess earliest would be June 2018.
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Posted in I-485 Forum on 14 Dec 2017
Topic: Feb-2018 Visa Bulletin prediction

EB2-I movement starting Feb is going to be limited to 2 weeks or even 1 week due to pending inventory in Dec 2008 (see Aug inventory update as Oct is messed up for this category). Going forward there is going to be extremely limited if not no movement in this category as there are NO spillover visas, unfortunately. The annual quota of 2800 visas will be at best bring EB2-I to the first week of February 2009. The only hope for EB2-I will be procedural delays caused due to interviews which may free up some visas from EB2-ROW to be allocated to EB2-I. The last incentive is for excess from EB3-ROW to be absorbed by EB2-I because EB3-I would have cleared its inventory and given that USCIS is not building inventory in that category could mean excess visas that will need to be absorbed at the end of the fiscal year

EB3-I will have 2 or at best 3 week movements for Feb/Mar bulletins. If some spillover from EB3-ROW is released in Apr (early) then dates will move to Jan 2007 and from then on - movements will be at a brisk pace. The only unknowns are the folks still waiting to file 485 applications with Priority dates in 2007.
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Posted in I-485 Forum on 14 Dec 2017
Topic: Feb-2018 Visa Bulletin prediction

Go ahead !
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